North Texas

American Athletic

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	@ Navy	27.5–29.7	55%
Week 9	vs Florida Atlantic	24.1–38.5	81%
Week 10	vs Rice	18.9–39.1	89%
Week 11	@ UTSA	28.5–32.7	60%
Week 12	@ Tulane	27.9–27.9	50%
Week 13	vs UAB	22.1–36.1	81%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	@ Indiana	52–16	41.0–16.3	11.3
Week 2	vs UNLV	6–44	27.1–33.1	32.0
Week 3	@ Texas State	49–35	23.4–37.7	28.3
Week 4	vs Houston Christian	14–63	—	—
Week 5	@ Tulsa	44–45	23.7–35.1	10.4
Week 6	vs Charlotte	10–50	13.3–39.4	13.9