2026 Week 9 · Oct 29, 2026, 11:30 PM · DATCU Stadium
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas
Predicted scoreLikely
Florida Atlantic
24.1
North Texas
38.5
North Texas win probability: 81%
Margin (North Texas − Florida Atlantic): 14.4 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 62.6 (80% range 38 to 90)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:03 PM | 17.2 | 60.7 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:59 PM | 17.1 | 60.7 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:04 PM | 17.1 | 60.7 | 85% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:24 AM | 17.1 | 60.7 | 85% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:30 PM | 17.2 | 60.7 | 85% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:40 PM | 17.8 | 61.9 | 86% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:45 PM | 18.9 | 65.6 | 87% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:58 PM | 19.8 | 63.6 | 89% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:56 PM | 19.8 | 63.7 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:51 AM | 19.8 | 63.7 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:20 PM | 19.8 | 63.7 | 88% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:20 PM | 13.7 | 62.9 | 79% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:59 PM | 12.0 | 62.0 | 76% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:29 PM | 12.5 | 64.1 | 78% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:29 PM | 14.4 | 62.6 | 81% |