2026 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2026, 1:00 AM · Chapman Stadium
North Texas @ Tulsa
Predicted scoreLikely
North Texas
35.1
Tulsa
23.7
Tulsa win probability: 25%
Margin (Tulsa − North Texas): -11.4 (80% range -32 to 10)
Total: 58.9 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: North Texas 45 – Tulsa 44 (margin error 10.4, total error 30.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.55% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.54% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:11 PM | -18.6 | 61.9 | 13% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:04 PM | -18.5 | 61.9 | 13% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:17 PM | -18.6 | 61.9 | 13% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:32 AM | -18.6 | 61.9 | 13% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:53 PM | -18.6 | 61.9 | 13% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:27 PM | -18.9 | 61.6 | 13% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:25 PM | -16.3 | 61.7 | 17% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:59 PM | -18.3 | 60.0 | 13% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:27 PM | -18.5 | 60.4 | 13% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:01 AM | -18.3 | 60.3 | 13% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:34 PM | -18.3 | 60.3 | 13% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:15 PM | -11.4 | 58.9 | 25% |