2026 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2026, 1:00 AM · Chapman Stadium
North Texas @ Tulsa
Predicted scoreConfident
North Texas
40.2
Tulsa
21.7
Tulsa win probability: 13%
Margin (Tulsa − North Texas): -18.6 (80% range -41 to 3)
Total: 61.9 (80% range 37 to 87)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:11 PM | -18.6 | 61.9 | 13% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:04 PM | -18.5 | 61.9 | 13% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:17 PM | -18.6 | 61.9 | 13% |