2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · DATCU Stadium
Rice @ North Texas
Predicted scoreConfident
Rice
18.9
North Texas
39.1
North Texas win probability: 89%
Margin (North Texas − Rice): 20.2 (80% range 0 to 42)
Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.62% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:19 PM | 22.3 | 58.7 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:20 PM | 22.3 | 58.7 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:54 PM | 22.3 | 58.7 | 91% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:25 AM | 22.2 | 58.7 | 91% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:45 PM | 22.4 | 58.7 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:30 PM | 22.0 | 58.6 | 91% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:26 PM | 21.6 | 58.8 | 91% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:36 PM | 26.6 | 53.2 | 95% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:17 PM | 26.7 | 53.3 | 96% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:40 PM | 26.7 | 53.3 | 96% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:09 PM | 26.7 | 53.3 | 96% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:01 PM | 22.7 | 59.9 | 92% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:30 PM | 19.3 | 59.3 | 88% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:26 PM | 18.6 | 57.7 | 88% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:54 PM | 20.2 | 58.0 | 89% |