2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 4:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
North Texas @ Indiana
Predicted scoreConfident
North Texas
16.3
Indiana
41.2
Indiana win probability: 94%
Margin (Indiana − North Texas): 24.9 (80% range 4 to 46)
Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:09 PM | 24.7 | 57.8 | 94% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:14 PM | 24.8 | 57.7 | 94% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:25:58 PM | 24.9 | 57.6 | 94% |