2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · DATCU Stadium
Charlotte @ North Texas
Predicted scoreConfident
Charlotte
13.3
North Texas
39.4
North Texas win probability: 95%
Margin (North Texas − Charlotte): 26.1 (80% range 6 to 46)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 31 to 76)
Actual: Charlotte 10 – North Texas 50 (margin error 13.9, total error 7.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:21 PM | 24.6 | 55.5 | 94% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:21 PM | 24.6 | 55.5 | 94% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:26 PM | 24.6 | 55.5 | 94% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:35 AM | 24.6 | 55.5 | 94% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:25 PM | 24.7 | 55.5 | 94% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:35 PM | 24.3 | 55.3 | 94% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:35 PM | 23.6 | 57.4 | 93% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:48 PM | 26.5 | 54.6 | 95% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:00 PM | 26.5 | 54.6 | 95% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:44 AM | 26.8 | 54.7 | 96% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:57 PM | 26.8 | 54.7 | 96% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:14 PM | 25.3 | 51.6 | 95% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:53 PM | 26.1 | 52.6 | 95% |