2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
North Texas @ Navy
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Texas
29.7
Navy
27.5
Navy win probability: 45%
Margin (Navy − North Texas): -2.3 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 57.2 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:48 PM | -1.6 | 58.7 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:56 PM | -1.6 | 58.7 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:56 PM | -1.6 | 58.7 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:10 AM | -1.6 | 58.6 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:04 PM | -1.7 | 58.6 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:50 PM | -1.4 | 58.7 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:05 PM | -1.0 | 58.5 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:30 PM | -8.2 | 56.4 | 30% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:26 PM | -8.2 | 56.5 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:29 AM | -8.2 | 56.4 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:03 PM | -8.2 | 56.4 | 30% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:06 PM | -4.4 | 56.2 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:56 PM | -2.8 | 55.1 | 43% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:23 PM | -2.4 | 56.4 | 44% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:22:56 PM | -2.3 | 57.2 | 45% |