Mississippi State
SEC
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Southern Miss | 17–34 | 17.7–36.5 | 1.8 |
| Week 2 | vs Arizona State | 20–24 | 33.6–25.4 | 12.2 |
| Week 4 | vs Northern Illinois | 10–38 | 21.0–31.6 | 17.4 |
| Week 5 | vs Tennessee | 41–34 | 34.3–22.7 | 4.7 |
| Week 6 | @ Texas A&M | 31–9 | 30.9–20.8 | 11.9 |
| Week 8 | @ Florida | 23–21 | 29.9–22.9 | 5.0 |
| Week 9 | vs Texas | 45–38 | 29.8–21.0 | 1.8 |
| Week 10 | @ Arkansas | 35–38 | 33.1–29.0 | 7.1 |
| Week 11 | vs Georgia | 41–21 | 32.4–25.3 | 12.9 |
| Week 12 | @ Missouri | 49–27 | 30.5–24.3 | 15.8 |
| Week 14 | vs Ole Miss | 38–19 | 33.9–26.0 | 11.1 |
| Week 1 | vs Wake Forest | 43–29 | 27.9–30.7 | 16.7 |