2025 Postseason · Jan 3, 2026, 1:00 AM · Bank of America Stadium (neutral site)

Wake Forest @ Mississippi State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Wake Forest

27.9

Mississippi State

30.7

Mississippi State win probability: 57%

Margin (Mississippi State − Wake Forest): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 58.6 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: Wake Forest 43 – Mississippi State 29 (margin error 16.7, total error 13.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.