2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 8:15 PM · Davis Wade Stadium
Tennessee @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLikely
Tennessee
34.3
Mississippi State
22.7
Mississippi State win probability: 24%
Margin (Mississippi State − Tennessee): -11.7 (80% range -32 to 9)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Tennessee 41 – Mississippi State 34 (margin error 4.7, total error 18.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.