2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 8:15 PM · Davis Wade Stadium

Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State

Predicted scoreLikely

Northern Illinois

21.0

Mississippi State

31.6

Mississippi State win probability: 75%

Margin (Mississippi State − Northern Illinois): 10.6 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Northern Illinois 10 – Mississippi State 38 (margin error 17.4, total error 4.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.