2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 8:15 PM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Mississippi State @ Florida

Predicted scoreLean

Mississippi State

22.9

Florida

29.9

Florida win probability: 67%

Margin (Florida − Mississippi State): 7.0 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Mississippi State 21 – Florida 23 (margin error 5.0, total error 8.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.