2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 11:30 PM · Davis Wade Stadium

Arizona State @ Mississippi State

Predicted scoreLean

Arizona State

33.6

Mississippi State

25.4

Mississippi State win probability: 31%

Margin (Mississippi State − Arizona State): -8.2 (80% range -29 to 13)

Total: 59.0 (80% range 35 to 85)

Actual: Arizona State 20 – Mississippi State 24 (margin error 12.2, total error 15.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.