2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 8:00 PM · Razorback Stadium

Mississippi State @ Arkansas

Predicted scoreLean

Mississippi State

29.0

Arkansas

33.1

Arkansas win probability: 60%

Margin (Arkansas − Mississippi State): 4.1 (80% range -17 to 25)

Total: 62.2 (80% range 37 to 89)

Actual: Mississippi State 38 – Arkansas 35 (margin error 7.1, total error 10.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.