2025 Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025, 5:00 PM · Davis Wade Stadium

Ole Miss @ Mississippi State

Predicted scoreLean

Ole Miss

33.9

Mississippi State

26.0

Mississippi State win probability: 31%

Margin (Mississippi State − Ole Miss): -7.9 (80% range -28 to 13)

Total: 59.9 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: Ole Miss 38 – Mississippi State 19 (margin error 11.1, total error 2.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.