2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 8:15 PM · Davis Wade Stadium
Texas @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLikely
Texas
29.8
Mississippi State
21.0
Mississippi State win probability: 29%
Margin (Mississippi State − Texas): -8.8 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Texas 45 – Mississippi State 38 (margin error 1.8, total error 32.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.