Fresno State

Pac-12

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 9	vs Oregon State	27.5–26.4	47%
Week 10	@ Utah State	25.8–24.3	46%
Week 11	@ Texas State	29.7–26.7	43%
Week 12	vs Colorado State	22.6–31.8	71%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	@ USC	39–0	34.9–16.2	20.3
Week 2	vs Sacramento State	3–49	14.4–29.5	30.9
Week 3	@ San José State	10–26	23.7–25.2	14.5
Week 4	vs Rice	24–38	14.9–32.5	3.6
Week 5	@ Washington State	6–26	24.6–20.9	23.8
Week 6	vs Boise State	38–31	28.3–21.9	0.6
Week 7	@ San Diego State	26–23	19.1–26.2	10.1