2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Fresno State @ USC
Predicted scoreConfident
Fresno State
16.2
USC
34.9
USC win probability: 88%
Margin (USC − Fresno State): 18.7 (80% range -1 to 39)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:17 PM | 18.7 | 50.9 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:13 PM | 18.7 | 50.9 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:25:54 PM | 18.7 | 51.1 | 88% |