2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 3:00 AM · CEFCU Stadium
Fresno State @ San José State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Fresno State
25.2
San José State
23.7
San José State win probability: 47%
Margin (San José State − Fresno State): -1.5 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Fresno State 26 – San José State 10 (margin error 14.5, total error 12.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:39 PM | -5.6 | 48.7 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:48 PM | -5.5 | 48.7 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:34 PM | -5.6 | 48.8 | 36% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:27 AM | -5.5 | 47.8 | 36% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:12 PM | -5.3 | 47.7 | 37% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:07 PM | -5.5 | 48.6 | 36% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:05 PM | 0.8 | 46.6 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:54 PM | -1.5 | 48.9 | 47% |