2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 3:00 AM · CEFCU Stadium
Fresno State @ San José State
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
27.2
San José State
21.6
San José State win probability: 36%
Margin (San José State − Fresno State): -5.6 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 48.8 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:39 PM | -5.6 | 48.7 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:48 PM | -5.5 | 48.7 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:34 PM | -5.6 | 48.8 | 36% |