2026 Week 5 · Oct 4, 2026, 1:30 AM · Gesa Field
Fresno State @ Washington State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Fresno State
20.9
Washington State
24.6
Washington State win probability: 60%
Margin (Washington State − Fresno State): 3.8 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 45.5 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Fresno State 26 – Washington State 6 (margin error 23.8, total error 13.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:12 PM | 7.4 | 47.8 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | 7.4 | 47.8 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:54 PM | 7.4 | 47.9 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:09 AM | 7.4 | 47.9 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:09 PM | 7.4 | 47.9 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:05 PM | 7.1 | 47.8 | 68% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:02 PM | 8.1 | 44.3 | 71% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:53 PM | 5.4 | 46.7 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:54 PM | 5.4 | 46.7 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:05 AM | 5.7 | 46.6 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:45 PM | 5.7 | 46.6 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:42 PM | 3.8 | 45.5 | 60% |