2026 Week 5 · Oct 4, 2026, 1:30 AM · Gesa Field
Fresno State @ Washington State
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
20.2
Washington State
27.6
Washington State win probability: 69%
Margin (Washington State − Fresno State): 7.4 (80% range -12 to 27)
Total: 47.9 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:12 PM | 7.4 | 47.8 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | 7.4 | 47.8 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:54 PM | 7.4 | 47.9 | 69% |