2026 Week 10 · Nov 8, 2026, 2:30 AM · Maverik Stadium
Fresno State @ Utah State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Fresno State
24.3
Utah State
25.8
Utah State win probability: 54%
Margin (Utah State − Fresno State): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 50.1 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:24 PM | 4.8 | 51.1 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:25 PM | 4.8 | 51.1 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:23 PM | 4.8 | 51.2 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:55 AM | 4.8 | 51.1 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:02 PM | 4.8 | 51.2 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:41 PM | 4.8 | 50.7 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:53 PM | 8.5 | 51.0 | 71% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:25 PM | 8.2 | 51.9 | 70% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:31 PM | 8.2 | 51.4 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:36 PM | 8.5 | 51.5 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:46 PM | 8.5 | 51.5 | 70% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:48 PM | 5.9 | 50.2 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:42 PM | 2.0 | 49.9 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:07 PM | 0.6 | 51.7 | 52% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:00 PM | 1.5 | 50.1 | 54% |