2026 Week 10 · Nov 8, 2026, 2:30 AM · Maverik Stadium
Fresno State @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
23.2
Utah State
28.0
Utah State win probability: 62%
Margin (Utah State − Fresno State): 4.8 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:24 PM | 4.8 | 51.1 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:25 PM | 4.8 | 51.1 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:23 PM | 4.8 | 51.2 | 62% |