2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 12:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Colorado State @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreLikely
Colorado State
22.6
Fresno State
31.8
Fresno State win probability: 71%
Margin (Fresno State − Colorado State): 9.2 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:45 PM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:57 PM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:57 PM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:11 AM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:42 PM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:41 PM | 6.0 | 48.0 | 65% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:41 PM | 0.1 | 48.6 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:30 PM | 3.4 | 50.9 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:41 PM | 3.4 | 50.9 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:54 PM | 3.7 | 51.0 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:47 PM | 3.7 | 51.0 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:05 PM | 2.6 | 53.3 | 56% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:32 PM | 8.3 | 54.7 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:33 PM | 7.8 | 57.0 | 69% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:36 PM | 9.2 | 54.4 | 71% |