2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 12:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Colorado State @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreLean
Colorado State
21.5
Fresno State
27.4
Fresno State win probability: 65%
Margin (Fresno State − Colorado State): 5.9 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:45 PM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:57 PM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:57 PM | 5.9 | 48.9 | 65% |