2026 Week 4 · Sep 27, 2026, 2:00 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Rice @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreLikely
Rice
16.8
Fresno State
32.5
Fresno State win probability: 84%
Margin (Fresno State − Rice): 15.7 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:48 PM | 15.4 | 48.9 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | 15.5 | 49.3 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:15 PM | 15.7 | 49.2 | 84% |