2026 Week 4 · Sep 27, 2026, 2:00 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Rice @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreConfident
Rice
14.9
Fresno State
32.5
Fresno State win probability: 87%
Margin (Fresno State − Rice): 17.6 (80% range -2 to 38)
Total: 47.4 (80% range 27 to 70)
Actual: Rice 24 – Fresno State 38 (margin error 3.6, total error 14.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:48 PM | 15.4 | 48.9 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | 15.5 | 49.3 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:15 PM | 15.7 | 49.2 | 84% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:09 AM | 15.4 | 49.4 | 84% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:52 PM | 15.3 | 49.6 | 84% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:25 PM | 14.6 | 49.8 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:22 PM | 14.0 | 47.5 | 82% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:46 PM | 17.0 | 46.1 | 87% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:22 PM | 17.6 | 47.4 | 87% |