2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Oregon State @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Oregon State
27.5
Fresno State
26.4
Fresno State win probability: 47%
Margin (Fresno State − Oregon State): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:58 PM | 10.9 | 46.5 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:07 PM | 10.9 | 46.5 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:23 PM | 10.9 | 46.5 | 76% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:50 AM | 10.9 | 46.5 | 76% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:36 PM | 11.1 | 46.5 | 77% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:51 PM | 10.8 | 46.2 | 76% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:33 PM | 6.1 | 47.8 | 65% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:13 PM | 5.3 | 49.7 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:42 PM | 5.3 | 49.8 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:04 PM | 5.9 | 49.8 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:33 PM | 5.9 | 49.8 | 65% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:33 PM | 3.4 | 49.9 | 59% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:02 PM | 3.5 | 52.1 | 59% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:43 PM | -0.2 | 53.7 | 50% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:21 PM | -1.1 | 53.9 | 47% |