2026 Week 7 · Oct 18, 2026, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
Fresno State @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
26.2
San Diego State
19.1
San Diego State win probability: 32%
Margin (San Diego State − Fresno State): -7.1 (80% range -27 to 12)
Total: 45.3 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Fresno State 23 – San Diego State 26 (margin error 10.1, total error 3.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 7 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:36 PM | 3.7 | 41.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:44 PM | 3.7 | 41.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:20 PM | 3.6 | 41.1 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:14 AM | 3.6 | 41.1 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:58 PM | 3.6 | 41.1 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:34 PM | 3.9 | 41.3 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:47 PM | 7.7 | 41.1 | 70% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:21 PM | 2.3 | 42.1 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:58 PM | 2.3 | 42.0 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:17 AM | 3.9 | 42.2 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:49 PM | 3.9 | 42.2 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:47 PM | 0.3 | 43.4 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:15 PM | -3.6 | 42.6 | 41% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:41 PM | -7.1 | 45.3 | 32% |