2026 Week 7 · Oct 18, 2026, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
Fresno State @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Fresno State
18.8
San Diego State
22.4
San Diego State win probability: 60%
Margin (San Diego State − Fresno State): 3.6 (80% range -14 to 21)
Total: 41.1 (80% range 21 to 62)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 17 | 0.90% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:36 PM | 3.7 | 41.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:44 PM | 3.7 | 41.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:20 PM | 3.6 | 41.1 | 60% |