2026 Week 6 · Oct 11, 2026, 2:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Boise State @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreLean
Boise State
25.0
Fresno State
20.7
Fresno State win probability: 39%
Margin (Fresno State − Boise State): -4.3 (80% range -24 to 14)
Total: 45.7 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:16 PM | -4.3 | 46.8 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:31 PM | -4.3 | 46.8 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:37 PM | -4.3 | 45.7 | 39% |