2026 Week 6 · Oct 11, 2026, 2:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium
Boise State @ Fresno State
Predicted scoreLean
Boise State
28.3
Fresno State
21.9
Fresno State win probability: 34%
Margin (Fresno State − Boise State): -6.4 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)
Actual: Boise State 38 – Fresno State 31 (margin error 0.6, total error 18.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:16 PM | -4.3 | 46.8 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:31 PM | -4.3 | 46.8 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:37 PM | -4.3 | 45.7 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:11 AM | -4.2 | 45.7 | 39% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:32 PM | -4.3 | 45.7 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:50 PM | -4.6 | 46.0 | 38% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:44 PM | -9.1 | 45.7 | 28% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:29 PM | -6.6 | 50.3 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:25 PM | -6.6 | 50.3 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:18 AM | -6.3 | 50.3 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:21 PM | -6.3 | 50.3 | 34% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:53 PM | -7.5 | 50.0 | 32% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:14 PM | -6.4 | 50.2 | 34% |