South Alabama

Sun Belt

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	@ Marshall	26.6–32.2	64%
Week 9	vs Louisiana Tech	28.0–28.4	51%
Week 10	@ Louisiana	29.5–25.0	39%
Week 11	vs Troy	27.0–31.1	60%
Week 12	@ Southern Miss	26.3–32.4	65%
Week 13	vs App State	26.7–32.9	65%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs SE Louisiana	14–39	—	—
Week 2	@ Tulane	28–24	31.5–18.2	9.2
Week 3	vs Ohio	36–41	28.4–28.9	4.5
Week 4	@ Kentucky	45–21	32.0–18.9	10.9
Week 5	vs UL Monroe	35–52	20.1–34.7	2.4
Week 6	@ Arkansas State	49–56	28.8–32.5	3.3