2026 Week 8 · Oct 20, 2026, 11:30 PM · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
South Alabama @ Marshall
Predicted scoreLean
South Alabama
32.2
Marshall
26.6
Marshall win probability: 36%
Margin (Marshall − South Alabama): -5.6 (80% range -27 to 15)
Total: 58.8 (80% range 34 to 85)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:47 PM | 3.2 | 57.6 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:45 PM | 3.2 | 57.6 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:22 PM | 3.2 | 57.6 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:37 AM | 3.2 | 57.6 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:08 PM | 3.3 | 57.6 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:57 PM | 2.9 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:32 PM | 1.7 | 55.4 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:25 PM | -3.4 | 57.7 | 42% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:01 PM | -3.4 | 57.8 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:39 AM | -3.1 | 57.7 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:16 PM | -3.1 | 57.7 | 42% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:12 PM | -0.5 | 57.4 | 49% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:38 PM | -2.2 | 58.5 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:00 PM | -3.3 | 59.0 | 42% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:22:57 PM | -5.6 | 58.8 | 36% |