2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisiana Tech
28.0
South Alabama
28.4
South Alabama win probability: 51%
Margin (South Alabama − Louisiana Tech): 0.4 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:05 PM | 1.1 | 52.5 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:01 PM | 1.1 | 52.5 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:31 PM | 1.1 | 52.5 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:46 AM | 1.1 | 52.5 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:34 PM | 1.2 | 52.5 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:48 PM | 1.2 | 53.2 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:27 PM | -0.1 | 53.0 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:05 PM | 2.6 | 52.7 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:39 PM | 2.7 | 52.6 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:56 AM | 3.4 | 52.7 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:22 PM | 3.4 | 52.7 | 58% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:24 PM | 2.9 | 51.7 | 57% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:19 PM | 2.0 | 54.0 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:35 PM | 2.0 | 57.1 | 55% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:34 PM | 0.4 | 56.5 | 51% |