2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
South Alabama @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Alabama
27.9
Southern Miss
26.5
Southern Miss win probability: 46%
Margin (Southern Miss − South Alabama): -1.5 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:53 PM | -1.5 | 54.4 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:54 PM | -1.4 | 54.4 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:45 PM | -1.5 | 54.4 | 46% |