2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
South Alabama @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreLean
South Alabama
32.4
Southern Miss
26.3
Southern Miss win probability: 35%
Margin (Southern Miss − South Alabama): -6.1 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 58.6 (80% range 34 to 85)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:53 PM | -1.5 | 54.4 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:54 PM | -1.4 | 54.4 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:45 PM | -1.5 | 54.4 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:00 AM | -1.5 | 54.4 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:47 PM | -1.5 | 54.4 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:00 PM | -1.2 | 54.5 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:33 PM | -1.4 | 53.6 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:36 PM | -4.6 | 57.0 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:23 PM | -4.6 | 57.1 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:49 PM | -4.4 | 57.1 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:12 PM | -4.4 | 57.1 | 40% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:20 PM | -5.3 | 54.8 | 37% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:31 PM | -4.5 | 55.7 | 39% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:18 PM | -5.2 | 60.1 | 38% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:37 PM | -6.1 | 58.6 | 35% |