2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Ohio @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ohio
28.4
South Alabama
28.9
South Alabama win probability: 51%
Margin (South Alabama − Ohio): 0.5 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 57.3 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Ohio 36 – South Alabama 41 (margin error 4.5, total error 19.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | -4.2 | 52.8 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:44 PM | -4.3 | 52.6 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:23 PM | -4.3 | 52.7 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:17 AM | -4.3 | 52.5 | 39% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:11 PM | -4.2 | 52.8 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:20 PM | -4.3 | 52.4 | 39% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:35 PM | -2.9 | 54.8 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:16 PM | 0.5 | 57.3 | 51% |