2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Ohio @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreLean
Ohio
28.5
South Alabama
24.2
South Alabama win probability: 39%
Margin (South Alabama − Ohio): -4.3 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | -4.2 | 52.8 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:44 PM | -4.3 | 52.6 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:23 PM | -4.3 | 52.7 | 39% |