2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Cajun Field
South Alabama @ Louisiana
Predicted scoreLean
South Alabama
25.0
Louisiana
29.5
Louisiana win probability: 61%
Margin (Louisiana − South Alabama): 4.6 (80% range -16 to 25)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:15 PM | 2.9 | 53.3 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:22 PM | 2.9 | 53.3 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:11 PM | 2.9 | 53.3 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:28 AM | 2.9 | 53.3 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:57 PM | 3.0 | 53.3 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:25 PM | 1.5 | 53.5 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:20 PM | 1.2 | 53.3 | 53% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:50 PM | 2.2 | 56.8 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:24 PM | 2.2 | 56.9 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:29 PM | 3.3 | 56.8 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:10 PM | 3.3 | 56.8 | 58% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:56 PM | 5.0 | 50.7 | 62% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:34 PM | 4.2 | 53.7 | 61% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:15 PM | 2.9 | 54.6 | 57% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:58 PM | 4.6 | 54.5 | 61% |