2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
UL Monroe @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreLikely
UL Monroe
21.2
South Alabama
30.6
South Alabama win probability: 72%
Margin (South Alabama − UL Monroe): 9.4 (80% range -11 to 30)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 9.5 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:07 PM | 9.4 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:48 PM | 9.4 | 51.8 | 72% |