2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
UL Monroe @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreLikely
UL Monroe
20.1
South Alabama
34.7
South Alabama win probability: 82%
Margin (South Alabama − UL Monroe): 14.6 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UL Monroe 35 – South Alabama 52 (margin error 2.4, total error 32.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.67% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 9.5 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:07 PM | 9.4 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:48 PM | 9.4 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:51 AM | 9.4 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:05 PM | 9.4 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:56 PM | 8.6 | 52.1 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:49 PM | 11.1 | 53.7 | 76% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:15 PM | 13.8 | 55.7 | 81% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:31 PM | 13.9 | 55.8 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:17 AM | 14.0 | 55.8 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:29 PM | 14.0 | 55.8 | 81% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:37 PM | 14.6 | 54.9 | 82% |