2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:45 PM · Kroger Field
South Alabama @ Kentucky
Predicted scoreLikely
South Alabama
18.9
Kentucky
32.0
Kentucky win probability: 80%
Margin (Kentucky − South Alabama): 13.1 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: South Alabama 21 – Kentucky 45 (margin error 10.9, total error 15.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:50 PM | 16.2 | 50.9 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:01 PM | 16.3 | 50.8 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:08 PM | 16.2 | 50.9 | 85% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:02 AM | 16.2 | 50.6 | 85% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:48 PM | 16.3 | 50.7 | 85% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:18 PM | 15.9 | 50.7 | 85% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:14 PM | 20.0 | 50.6 | 90% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:21 PM | 13.5 | 50.7 | 81% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:13 PM | 13.1 | 51.0 | 80% |