2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:45 PM · Kroger Field
South Alabama @ Kentucky
Predicted scoreConfident
South Alabama
17.3
Kentucky
33.5
Kentucky win probability: 85%
Margin (Kentucky − South Alabama): 16.2 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:50 PM | 16.2 | 50.9 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:01 PM | 16.3 | 50.8 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:08 PM | 16.2 | 50.9 | 85% |