Missouri State
Conference USA
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ USC | 73–13 | 37.4–18.8 | 41.4 |
| Week 2 | @ Marshall | 20–21 | 36.6–19.5 | 18.2 |
| Week 3 | vs SMU | 28–10 | 38.2–17.8 | 2.4 |
| Week 5 | vs Western Kentucky | 27–22 | 25.9–24.4 | 3.5 |
| Week 7 | @ Middle Tennessee | 20–22 | 25.3–29.5 | 2.3 |
| Week 9 | @ New Mexico State | 17–24 | 25.0–27.1 | 4.9 |
| Week 10 | vs Florida International | 21–28 | 19.5–26.5 | 0.1 |
| Week 11 | @ Liberty | 17–21 | 27.0–24.3 | 6.7 |
| Week 12 | vs UTEP | 24–38 | 20.2–23.9 | 10.3 |
| Week 13 | @ Kennesaw State | 41–34 | 24.6–24.9 | 7.3 |
| Week 14 | vs Louisiana Tech | 42–30 | 23.0–24.9 | 13.9 |
| Week 1 | @ Arkansas State | 34–28 | 27.0–34.0 | 13.0 |