2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 11:00 PM · Plaster Sports Complex

Western Kentucky @ Missouri State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Western Kentucky

25.9

Missouri State

24.4

Missouri State win probability: 46%

Margin (Missouri State − Western Kentucky): -1.5 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Western Kentucky 27 – Missouri State 22 (margin error 3.5, total error 1.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.