2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 11:30 PM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Missouri State @ USC

Predicted scoreConfident

Missouri State

18.8

USC

37.4

USC win probability: 85%

Margin (USC − Missouri State): 18.6 (80% range -4 to 42)

Total: 56.1 (80% range 34 to 78)

Actual: Missouri State 13 – USC 73 (margin error 41.4, total error 29.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.