2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 10:00 PM · Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Missouri State @ Marshall

Predicted scoreConfident

Missouri State

19.5

Marshall

36.6

Marshall win probability: 85%

Margin (Marshall − Missouri State): 17.2 (80% range -4 to 38)

Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 81)

Actual: Missouri State 21 – Marshall 20 (margin error 18.2, total error 15.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.