2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 7:30 PM · Plaster Sports Complex
SMU @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreConfident
SMU
38.2
Missouri State
17.8
Missouri State win probability: 10%
Margin (Missouri State − SMU): -20.4 (80% range -42 to 0)
Total: 56.0 (80% range 34 to 80)
Actual: SMU 28 – Missouri State 10 (margin error 2.4, total error 18.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 35 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 45 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.