2025 Week 7 · Oct 8, 2025, 11:30 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLean

Missouri State

29.5

Middle Tennessee

25.3

Middle Tennessee win probability: 40%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Missouri State): -4.3 (80% range -25 to 17)

Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Missouri State 22 – Middle Tennessee 20 (margin error 2.3, total error 12.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.