2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:00 PM · Plaster Sports Complex

UTEP @ Missouri State

Predicted scoreToss-up

UTEP

20.2

Missouri State

23.9

Missouri State win probability: 60%

Margin (Missouri State − UTEP): 3.7 (80% range -15 to 23)

Total: 44.1 (80% range 23 to 66)

Actual: UTEP 24 – Missouri State 38 (margin error 10.3, total error 17.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.