2025 Week 10 · Oct 30, 2025, 12:00 AM · Plaster Sports Complex

Florida International @ Missouri State

Predicted scoreLean

Florida International

19.5

Missouri State

26.5

Missouri State win probability: 68%

Margin (Missouri State − Florida International): 6.9 (80% range -13 to 26)

Total: 46.0 (80% range 24 to 69)

Actual: Florida International 21 – Missouri State 28 (margin error 0.1, total error 3.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.