2025 Week 9 · Oct 23, 2025, 1:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Missouri State @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Missouri State

27.1

New Mexico State

25.0

New Mexico State win probability: 45%

Margin (New Mexico State − Missouri State): -2.1 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Missouri State 24 – New Mexico State 17 (margin error 4.9, total error 11.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.