2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 9:30 PM · University Stadium (NM)
Air Force @ New Mexico
Predicted scoreLikely
Air Force
21.9
New Mexico
34.0
New Mexico win probability: 78%
Margin (New Mexico − Air Force): 12.1 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 55.9 (80% range 31 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:05 PM | 9.2 | 58.3 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:14 PM | 9.2 | 58.3 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:45 PM | 9.3 | 58.3 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:59 AM | 9.2 | 58.3 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:03 PM | 9.3 | 58.3 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:26 PM | 8.6 | 58.3 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:28 PM | 12.9 | 57.6 | 79% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:19 PM | 10.6 | 59.5 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:57 PM | 10.7 | 59.6 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:30 PM | 10.7 | 59.6 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:32 PM | 10.6 | 59.6 | 75% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:32 PM | 12.8 | 56.3 | 79% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:49 PM | 14.9 | 55.3 | 83% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:10 PM | 13.8 | 56.0 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:52 PM | 12.1 | 55.9 | 78% |