2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Sacramento State @ Hawai'i
Predicted scoreConfident
Sacramento State
12.9
Hawai'i
37.1
Hawai'i win probability: 95%
Margin (Hawai'i − Sacramento State): 24.2 (80% range 4 to 45)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.98% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.97% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.95% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.94% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.88% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:46 PM | 0.4 | 54.5 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:52:00 AM | 0.4 | 54.5 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:02 PM | 0.4 | 54.5 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:24 PM | 0.3 | 55.1 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:29 PM | 14.3 | 42.1 | 83% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:18 PM | 21.9 | 49.0 | 92% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:56 PM | 22.1 | 49.0 | 93% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:19 PM | 21.8 | 49.0 | 92% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:35 PM | 21.8 | 49.0 | 92% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:56 PM | 23.3 | 49.6 | 93% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:34 PM | 20.9 | 50.1 | 91% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:09 PM | 21.4 | 50.9 | 92% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:51 PM | 24.2 | 50.0 | 95% |