2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Southern Miss @ Old Dominion
Predicted scoreLean
Southern Miss
20.3
Old Dominion
27.0
Old Dominion win probability: 67%
Margin (Old Dominion − Southern Miss): 6.7 (80% range -13 to 27)
Total: 47.3 (80% range 26 to 70)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:07 PM | 14.9 | 49.9 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:06 PM | 14.9 | 49.9 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:36 PM | 14.9 | 49.9 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:50 AM | 14.9 | 49.9 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:08 PM | 14.9 | 49.9 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:46 PM | 13.9 | 50.3 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:19 PM | 14.4 | 49.9 | 82% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:26 PM | 12.2 | 50.3 | 78% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:03 PM | 12.2 | 50.3 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:12 PM | 12.5 | 50.4 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:31 PM | 12.5 | 50.4 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:35:02 PM | 9.3 | 48.0 | 73% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:48 PM | 6.3 | 46.6 | 66% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:08 PM | 6.4 | 47.8 | 66% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:06 PM | 6.7 | 47.3 | 67% |