2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Central Michigan @ Ball State
Predicted scoreLean
Central Michigan
30.1
Ball State
25.7
Ball State win probability: 40%
Margin (Ball State − Central Michigan): -4.5 (80% range -25 to 16)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:59 PM | -4.4 | 50.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:12 PM | -4.3 | 50.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:40 PM | -4.3 | 50.2 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:54 AM | -4.4 | 50.2 | 39% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:06 PM | -4.2 | 50.3 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:42 PM | -4.3 | 49.5 | 39% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:23 PM | -2.2 | 50.9 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:23 PM | -3.0 | 52.6 | 43% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:00 PM | -2.9 | 52.7 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:18 PM | -2.2 | 52.7 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:47 PM | -2.1 | 52.7 | 45% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:34 PM | -8.9 | 52.1 | 28% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:53 PM | -8.6 | 53.5 | 29% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:15 PM | -6.8 | 54.3 | 33% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:56 PM | -4.5 | 55.8 | 40% |