2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Central Michigan @ Ball State
Predicted scoreLean
Central Michigan
27.3
Ball State
23.0
Ball State win probability: 39%
Margin (Ball State − Central Michigan): -4.3 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:59 PM | -4.4 | 50.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:12 PM | -4.3 | 50.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:40 PM | -4.3 | 50.2 | 39% |