2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
NC State @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
NC State
28.1
North Carolina
25.5
North Carolina win probability: 43%
Margin (North Carolina − NC State): -2.6 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:06 PM | -2.6 | 53.6 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:07 PM | -2.6 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:29 PM | -2.6 | 53.7 | 43% |