2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
NC State @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
NC State
23.4
North Carolina
29.0
North Carolina win probability: 64%
Margin (North Carolina − NC State): 5.6 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:06 PM | -2.6 | 53.6 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:07 PM | -2.6 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:29 PM | -2.6 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:44 AM | -2.6 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:55 PM | -2.6 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:52 PM | -3.4 | 53.5 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:30 PM | 1.7 | 50.5 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:31 PM | 2.4 | 51.4 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:08 PM | 2.4 | 51.4 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:08 PM | 2.7 | 51.5 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:26 PM | 2.7 | 51.5 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:35:00 PM | 1.3 | 51.7 | 53% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:45 PM | 2.8 | 53.0 | 57% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:57 PM | 4.1 | 52.6 | 60% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:02 PM | 5.6 | 52.3 | 64% |