2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kroger Field
Louisville @ Kentucky
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
23.8
Kentucky
28.0
Kentucky win probability: 60%
Margin (Kentucky − Louisville): 4.2 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:04 PM | -2.0 | 46.5 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:05 PM | -2.0 | 46.5 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:24 PM | -2.0 | 46.5 | 45% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:38 AM | -2.0 | 46.5 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:58 PM | -1.9 | 46.5 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:34 PM | -1.4 | 45.6 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:55 PM | -2.1 | 47.5 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:01 PM | -3.6 | 46.9 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:12 PM | -3.7 | 47.0 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:03 PM | -3.5 | 47.0 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:22 PM | -3.5 | 47.0 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:54 PM | 1.4 | 48.6 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:40 PM | 3.9 | 49.4 | 60% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:52 PM | 2.6 | 51.4 | 56% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:59 PM | 4.2 | 51.8 | 60% |