2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kroger Field
Louisville @ Kentucky
Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisville
24.3
Kentucky
22.3
Kentucky win probability: 45%
Margin (Kentucky − Louisville): -2.0 (80% range -21 to 17)
Total: 46.5 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:04 PM | -2.0 | 46.5 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:05 PM | -2.0 | 46.5 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:24 PM | -2.0 | 46.5 | 45% |