Predicted scoreLikely
Minnesota
16.7
Wisconsin
25.8
Wisconsin win probability: 73%
Margin (Wisconsin − Minnesota): 9.2 (80% range -10 to 28)
Total: 42.5 (80% range 23 to 64)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.93% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:13 PM | 3.2 | 43.8 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:01 PM | 3.2 | 43.8 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:09 PM | 3.2 | 43.8 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:22 AM | 3.2 | 43.8 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:16 PM | 3.2 | 43.8 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:20 PM | 3.3 | 42.6 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:39 PM | 3.9 | 44.2 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:07 PM | 6.4 | 46.8 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:46 PM | 6.4 | 46.8 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:27 PM | 6.7 | 46.9 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:44 PM | 6.7 | 46.9 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:42 PM | 7.8 | 45.4 | 70% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:42 PM | 8.3 | 43.0 | 71% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:42 PM | 10.6 | 42.0 | 77% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:11 PM | 9.2 | 42.5 | 73% |